www.Bellemond.com.au
Party Bags , goodies Bag,australia party bag
Looking for something different for your party? Bored with the usual party themes? Your children will be inspired by our range of products.
Click here for more information
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
australia stock market
RaymondTeo.com Investing Ideas, Stock Market News, Forex Trading created an interesting post today on Tech to Lead Market LowerHere’s a short outlineThe famous index of technology and IT stocks has just closed at 1,500 points on the US overnight session. It’s 5.5% lower than the recent high posted on March 26 at 1,587 points. This level of 1,587 points has been the peak of the recent rally that started at 1,265 points, on March 9. The price action actually rebounded there at it was a previous low, posted twice in February and March 2003. The area between 1,250 and 1,265 points is therefore the main support zone on the medium -term: some s australia stock market
australia stock market news
australia stock market news
Friday, March 20, 2009
Singapore stock market
CAPITACOMMERCIAL TRUST, kim eng maintain BUY with target price $1.40-Fear begets fear. CCT’s share price has underperformed in the market sincethe beginning of the year, declining by about 25% YTD, versus the 13%-decline of the STI and the 23%-decline of the FSTREI Index. We believethat the concerns of the DPU sustainability and a rights issue in the nearfuture still weigh on the investor’s psyche.-FY09 yield of 18% almost certain!. We reiterate that having already lockedin 79% of the forecast in gross rental income, CCT’s management isconfident that it can deliver its forecasted FY09 DPU of 12.3 cents.
This represents a 12.2%-growth in the DPU, due to increased contributions fromOne George Street, Wilkie Edge, as well as positive rental reversions.-Zoom in on 2010 and beyond. Given the severity of the global recession andthe new supply of Grade A office space coming onstream from 2010, spotrents and the average occupancy rate of CCT’s portfolio of properties maybe affected. We now factor a 20%-decline in spot rents in FY10, and officeportfolio occupancy rates of 92.5% and 90% respectively for FY10 and FY11.Even so, we still expect FY10 and FY11 DPUs of 12.4 and 12.5 cents,respectively. We estimate the breakeven portfolio occupancy to be about57%, when the average office passing rent is only $5 psf.-Hard to justify rights issue in FY09/10. Unlike CapitaMall Trust, CCT doesnot have significant CAPEX requirements, having aborted its plans toredevelop Market Street Car Park. As for the $885m-debt maturing in 2010,we reckon that it can be secured against One George Street and 6 BatteryRoad (combined value of $2.5b) at a 50% LTV, even if their valuationsdecline by 30% from Dec 08. Hence, we do not foresee the need for CCT toundertake any rights issue in 2009 and 2010.-Attractive yields to prevail, against all odds. Despite adopting morestringent assumptions, we think that CCT can still provide attractive DPUyields of 18.0% and above, a hefty 1500 bps spread over the average 10-yeargovernment bond yield. We reiterate our BUY recommendation, with aDDM-derived target price of $1.40, assuming a 0% terminal growth rate.HK LAND, cl maintain SELL with target price $1.92-We have cut our estimates for 2009/10.
Our NAV has been trimmed by 15% butwe apply a smaller NAV discount, resulting in the same price target ofU$1.92. This implies only 12% downside from current levels and we believethe 4.7% dividend will provide some downside support. Based on analysis ofthe three previous downturns, we believe the stock will only start tooutperform significantly from 2010. Hence, we would switch into moreinteresting names like Link Reit or SHKP.-Cutting estimates.
We have performed a more detailed review of ourestimates following the recent results briefing. We have trimmed our officeforecasts and also residential in light of the recent writedown. Ouroutlook for HK and Singapore office remains negative with an expected 60%peak to trough decline in rents.
We believe HK retail will continue to holdup well on a relative basis.-Reasonable dividend yield. We have assumed that the company willdistribute around 80% of its rental income in dividends. This implies adividend yield of 4.7% for 2009, which we see as providing some support forthe stock. Link Reit’s dividend yield is around 5.3% and we see more upsidehere via greater rental reversions.New NAV but same price target. Our new 2009 NAV is HK$3.30.
As we work ourway through the “credit crisis?we have decided to apply a slightly lowerdiscount of 40% (vs 50% previously), which results in the same price targetof HK$1.92. With the stock having fallen so dramatically over the past 12months, we no longer see huge downside.-When to buy? Looking back at the last three downturns, the stock hasbottomed around the same time as GDP; around four months before capitalvalues and around six to nine months before rents. Based on our expectedtrough in these metrics, this would imply the Hongkong Land share priceshould start to outperform from the first quarter of 2010.
Hence, we retainour SELL on the stock and see more upside elsewhere. Link Reit remains ourtop pick in the Asian Property sector ?a ultra defensive name as we believethe downturn in physical property markets across Asia will last two tothree years.KEPPEL CORP, db maintain BUY with target price $7.10-Our recent meeting with KEP suggests that the O&M operations remainrelatively steady. Apart from the announced cancellations and delays sofar, the bulk of the remaining orders appear to be generally intact.
Withregards to the four jackup rig orders from Rowan for US$780m (announced in2007), construction of the first three rigs will continue but the fourth isstill under negotiation - we think for a possible deferral. The FPSO marketis showing some signs of life and the group is hoping for some orders inthis space. Petrobras' investment plans should lead to some major orderswithin the sector and we think KEP should stand a chance to win consideringtheir track record and reputation.-Our discussion with SPC recently suggests that refining margins YTD haverecovered towards the mid-single digit range, up from the 2H08 average ofUS$1/bbl (SPC has a relatively low breakeven level).
However, outlook forrefining margins remain uncertain considering the volatile conditions. Gasoil has performed well from Indonesian and Chinese demand but jet fuel isweak. A risk could come from Reliance's new refinery which should comeonstream in Apr-09, although its current target markets of Europe, Africaand the US seem to suggest that impact to Asian margins may be limited.-The Infrastructure division's projects are ongoing and progressing wellbut coming from a relatively small base.
While sentiment in the propertysector is poor, it is of no surprise and is already reflected in the weakshare price. Overall, KEP is showing some resilience to negative news flow,suggesting that much has been discounted. The long term industry prospectsare positive and we believe they are well positioned to benefit as weakerpeers fall on the wayside amidst the global slowdown.
This represents a 12.2%-growth in the DPU, due to increased contributions fromOne George Street, Wilkie Edge, as well as positive rental reversions.-Zoom in on 2010 and beyond. Given the severity of the global recession andthe new supply of Grade A office space coming onstream from 2010, spotrents and the average occupancy rate of CCT’s portfolio of properties maybe affected. We now factor a 20%-decline in spot rents in FY10, and officeportfolio occupancy rates of 92.5% and 90% respectively for FY10 and FY11.Even so, we still expect FY10 and FY11 DPUs of 12.4 and 12.5 cents,respectively. We estimate the breakeven portfolio occupancy to be about57%, when the average office passing rent is only $5 psf.-Hard to justify rights issue in FY09/10. Unlike CapitaMall Trust, CCT doesnot have significant CAPEX requirements, having aborted its plans toredevelop Market Street Car Park. As for the $885m-debt maturing in 2010,we reckon that it can be secured against One George Street and 6 BatteryRoad (combined value of $2.5b) at a 50% LTV, even if their valuationsdecline by 30% from Dec 08. Hence, we do not foresee the need for CCT toundertake any rights issue in 2009 and 2010.-Attractive yields to prevail, against all odds. Despite adopting morestringent assumptions, we think that CCT can still provide attractive DPUyields of 18.0% and above, a hefty 1500 bps spread over the average 10-yeargovernment bond yield. We reiterate our BUY recommendation, with aDDM-derived target price of $1.40, assuming a 0% terminal growth rate.HK LAND, cl maintain SELL with target price $1.92-We have cut our estimates for 2009/10.
Our NAV has been trimmed by 15% butwe apply a smaller NAV discount, resulting in the same price target ofU$1.92. This implies only 12% downside from current levels and we believethe 4.7% dividend will provide some downside support. Based on analysis ofthe three previous downturns, we believe the stock will only start tooutperform significantly from 2010. Hence, we would switch into moreinteresting names like Link Reit or SHKP.-Cutting estimates.
We have performed a more detailed review of ourestimates following the recent results briefing. We have trimmed our officeforecasts and also residential in light of the recent writedown. Ouroutlook for HK and Singapore office remains negative with an expected 60%peak to trough decline in rents.
We believe HK retail will continue to holdup well on a relative basis.-Reasonable dividend yield. We have assumed that the company willdistribute around 80% of its rental income in dividends. This implies adividend yield of 4.7% for 2009, which we see as providing some support forthe stock. Link Reit’s dividend yield is around 5.3% and we see more upsidehere via greater rental reversions.New NAV but same price target. Our new 2009 NAV is HK$3.30.
As we work ourway through the “credit crisis?we have decided to apply a slightly lowerdiscount of 40% (vs 50% previously), which results in the same price targetof HK$1.92. With the stock having fallen so dramatically over the past 12months, we no longer see huge downside.-When to buy? Looking back at the last three downturns, the stock hasbottomed around the same time as GDP; around four months before capitalvalues and around six to nine months before rents. Based on our expectedtrough in these metrics, this would imply the Hongkong Land share priceshould start to outperform from the first quarter of 2010.
Hence, we retainour SELL on the stock and see more upside elsewhere. Link Reit remains ourtop pick in the Asian Property sector ?a ultra defensive name as we believethe downturn in physical property markets across Asia will last two tothree years.KEPPEL CORP, db maintain BUY with target price $7.10-Our recent meeting with KEP suggests that the O&M operations remainrelatively steady. Apart from the announced cancellations and delays sofar, the bulk of the remaining orders appear to be generally intact.
Withregards to the four jackup rig orders from Rowan for US$780m (announced in2007), construction of the first three rigs will continue but the fourth isstill under negotiation - we think for a possible deferral. The FPSO marketis showing some signs of life and the group is hoping for some orders inthis space. Petrobras' investment plans should lead to some major orderswithin the sector and we think KEP should stand a chance to win consideringtheir track record and reputation.-Our discussion with SPC recently suggests that refining margins YTD haverecovered towards the mid-single digit range, up from the 2H08 average ofUS$1/bbl (SPC has a relatively low breakeven level).
However, outlook forrefining margins remain uncertain considering the volatile conditions. Gasoil has performed well from Indonesian and Chinese demand but jet fuel isweak. A risk could come from Reliance's new refinery which should comeonstream in Apr-09, although its current target markets of Europe, Africaand the US seem to suggest that impact to Asian margins may be limited.-The Infrastructure division's projects are ongoing and progressing wellbut coming from a relatively small base.
While sentiment in the propertysector is poor, it is of no surprise and is already reflected in the weakshare price. Overall, KEP is showing some resilience to negative news flow,suggesting that much has been discounted. The long term industry prospectsare positive and we believe they are well positioned to benefit as weakerpeers fall on the wayside amidst the global slowdown.
Australia Property Sector
Trading the Property Sector
The property trust has been suffering on the ASX for 2 years now. The historical high was indeed posted on February 23 in 2007 when the price opened at $23.40. Bearish trend started from this point was backed by a support line that was cleared in early February this year. This previous support line has become now the immediate resistance.Let's have a look in details. The long-term support line was indentified through points A, B, C, D and E which are lower lows. On the other side, same thing: points X, Y and Z are lower highs. When the price action cleared the support line in early February, it created a gap (red ellipse on the long-term chart)...
Click to enlargeThis gap was then immediately filled. The rebound failed to break above the support level and validated this level as the new resistance (point F). This level is around $11.5.The price action fell back to post a low at $8.68 last week. The sharp rebound that followed drove the price to $10.70 yesterday. It's a rise of 23% in just 8 days. However the price action yesterday failed to reach the resistance level at $11.50 and closed much lower than the opening price. It may be a signal of short-term trend reversal.
Click to enlargeThe momentum indicators (MACD and technical momentum indicator) are still bullish and argue therefore for a continuation of the current positive trend. However the Bollinger bands show that the price objective targeted by the rebound when it started last week has been reached. It was the upper Bollinger band, that almost corresponds to the resistance line just above.What does this mean? Well it means that after a bounce of more than 20% in just a week for WDC, short-term traders reckon that it's time to sell back the stock. However, it may be an opportunity to re-enter at lower price. That's why we expect that the small correction occurred yesterday is likely to be over as the price fell back to the 20-day moving average (the dashed line between the Bollinger Bands that often acts as an intermediary support/resistance level). A continuation of the rebound is likely and it will probably test the resistance line at $11.50. A break above would give some new momentum and would be clearly bullish.
The property trust has been suffering on the ASX for 2 years now. The historical high was indeed posted on February 23 in 2007 when the price opened at $23.40. Bearish trend started from this point was backed by a support line that was cleared in early February this year. This previous support line has become now the immediate resistance.Let's have a look in details. The long-term support line was indentified through points A, B, C, D and E which are lower lows. On the other side, same thing: points X, Y and Z are lower highs. When the price action cleared the support line in early February, it created a gap (red ellipse on the long-term chart)...
Click to enlargeThis gap was then immediately filled. The rebound failed to break above the support level and validated this level as the new resistance (point F). This level is around $11.5.The price action fell back to post a low at $8.68 last week. The sharp rebound that followed drove the price to $10.70 yesterday. It's a rise of 23% in just 8 days. However the price action yesterday failed to reach the resistance level at $11.50 and closed much lower than the opening price. It may be a signal of short-term trend reversal.
Click to enlargeThe momentum indicators (MACD and technical momentum indicator) are still bullish and argue therefore for a continuation of the current positive trend. However the Bollinger bands show that the price objective targeted by the rebound when it started last week has been reached. It was the upper Bollinger band, that almost corresponds to the resistance line just above.What does this mean? Well it means that after a bounce of more than 20% in just a week for WDC, short-term traders reckon that it's time to sell back the stock. However, it may be an opportunity to re-enter at lower price. That's why we expect that the small correction occurred yesterday is likely to be over as the price fell back to the 20-day moving average (the dashed line between the Bollinger Bands that often acts as an intermediary support/resistance level). A continuation of the rebound is likely and it will probably test the resistance line at $11.50. A break above would give some new momentum and would be clearly bullish.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)